2026 San Diego Mortgage Rate Outlook (What to Expect)
By Dave Holland, NMLS #2273319 · Keypath Mortgage, Clairemont San Diego
Going into 2026, San Diego mortgage rates are sitting in the 6 to 7 percent band for 30-year conventional loans. Forecasts from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and Federal Reserve commentary suggest rates will likely stay in this range through the year — with potential for modest declines if inflation continues to cool. No one can predict rates with certainty, so this article focuses on what is known and how to position yourself either way.
What Drives Rates in 2026
- 10-year Treasury yield — mortgage rates closely track this benchmark.
- Federal Reserve policy — Fed signals more than current Fed action.
- Inflation data — lower CPI tends to push rates down.
- Spread between Treasuries and MBS — investor demand affects pricing.
San Diego Rate Snapshot (Early 2026)
- 30-year conventional: 6.00% – 6.875%
- 15-year conventional: 5.50% – 6.25%
- FHA 30-year: 5.875% – 6.625%
- VA 30-year: 5.875% – 6.50%
- Jumbo 30-year: 6.00% – 6.875%
- HELOC: Prime + 0.5% to Prime + 2%
Illustrative ranges, not a rate quote. Today’s actual rates here.
Should You Buy Now or Wait for Rates to Drop?
The honest answer: no one knows. If rates drop and more buyers come back, San Diego prices likely rise — wiping out the rate savings. If you buy now and rates drop later, you can refinance. The right question is not “will rates drop” but “can you comfortably afford the home today?”
When Refinancing Makes Sense in 2026
- Borrowers who closed in 2023-early 2024 at 7%+ rates.
- FHA borrowers with 20%+ equity wanting to remove MIP.
- VA borrowers eligible for IRRRL — streamlined, no appraisal, low cost.
- Cash-out refi for renovations if you have substantial equity.
Lock or Float?
- Lock — secure today’s rate for 30, 45, or 60 days. Protected if rates rise.
- Float — wait. Save if rates drop, pay more if they rise.
Get Today’s Actual Rate Quote
For your actual rate based on your credit, down payment, and target home, we shop our wholesale lender panel. Call (619) 900-6614 or see today’s rates. NMLS #2273319.
Prefer to watch? The rate and market videos, including what a weak jobs report actually does to pricing, are in the San Diego mortgage video library.